Thursday, April 15, 2010

Idol Thoughts (From 9 to 7)

There has only been one time where I've felt less invested in American Idol in the history of the show than now, and that was season 1.   The show wasn't even on my radar at that point so I missed the whole Justin vs. Kelly nonsense.  I'm almost certain at this point that "not watching" will be my exact approach to the show for next year and beyond, especially as Simon trots off to do his new show, X-Factor (I'm following Simon, his show will be my show, his people will be my people, his God will be my.... nevermind).

The point is, I've enjoyed this show for three distinct reason's;  Simon's acerbic, yet accurate and necessary commentary; it's ability to identify quality talent and showcase it with "wow" performances; and Seacrest's confident and skilled ringmastery.   Only one of those will remain next season, and with all due respect to Mr. Seacrest, his stellar hosting gifts just aren't enough to keep me around.

So let's talk about these final 9 performers (7 now) and see if my original Top 12 assessments are proving accurate and if we can squeeze just a little enjoyment out of Idol's dying breaths.

Here's what I said at the Top 12:

Big Mike -  "Could be our darkhorse."
DD  "Not long for the competition."
Casey "9th place voice with 6th place appeal."
Lacey  "I like her voice, but a B or B- performance almost always goes home" 
Garcia "Rode his early performance of "Straight Up" into the final twelve, but there doesn't seem to be too much more to him."
Katie "Gone soon."
Tim "Worst performance of the night, which = safe for one more week."
Sibhan "My personal favorite, it's like a female Lambert without the creepiness or one trick ponyness"
Lee "Jeremy Camp Jr. (heretofore referred to as JCJ) gets my other vote for darkhorse contender."
Paige "Laryngitis eh? Nice."
Aaron "My least favorite but was really pretty good this week.  He just has a little bit of that Archuletta precociousness to him that annoys me."
Crystal "Obviously the early favorite, which likely means 4th place and an amazing career anyway"

Official predictions:

1st - Lee
2nd - Siobhan
3rd - Crystal
4th - Big Mike
5th - 12th - The others

Well, so far, so good, but a couple things have shifted my predictions that I didn't see coming.  The likability and improvement of Tim Urban and the plummeting appeal of Siobhan (I also think that Casey's talent is greater than I gave him credit for, but I still think he will be 5th or 6th.).  I'm sticking with my prediction that Lee will win, but Siobhan's fall from grace has changed things a bit.

Official Top 7 predictions.

7th - No doubt it will be a guy next week, Tim is stealing Aaron's votes at an exponential rate, but is it enough to overtake the preteen vote.  I say no, Tim comes in 7th.

6th - Is it possible that Siobhan will have dropped this low? Yes it is, unless she gets a bottom three bounce Fembert comes in 6th.

5th - It's Casey's time here, unless he pulls an amazing performance, he just won't have enough to overtake the tweenerific Aaron.

4th - Aaron's time finally comes to an end about 8 places after it should have. (or Tim if he survives the Aaron/Tim death match next week)

3rd - I think Big Mike's "save" bounce ends here.  I just don't think he will have enough to get to the finale.

2nd - Crystal, enough to get here, but not enough to win.  I still think we may see her disappear earlier, but the lack of any other female contenders is a good sign for her.

1st - Ladies and Gentlemen your 2010 American Idol, Mr. Jeremy Camp..... er.... I mean.... Mr. Lee Dewyze.

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